TN WATCHING the flow of events over the past decade or so, it is hard to avoid the feeling
that something very fundamental has happened in world history. The past year has seen a
flood of articles commemorating the end of the Cold War, and the fact that "peace" seems
to be breaking out in many regions of the world. Most of these analyses lack any larger
conceptual framework for distinguishing between what is essential and what is contingent
or accidental in world history, and are predictably superficial. If Mr. Gorbachev were ousted
from the Kremlin or a new Ayatollah proclaimed the millennium from a desolate Middle
Eastern capital, these same commentators would scramble to announce the rebirth of a new
era of conflict.
|